home *** CD-ROM | disk | FTP | other *** search
- <text>
- <title>
- The Shift in Palestinian Thinking
- </title>
- <article>
- <hdr>
- Current History, January 1992
- The Shift in Palestinian Thinking
- </hdr>
- <body>
- <p>By Muhammad Muslih--teaches political science at C.W. Post
- College, Long Island University.
- </p>
- <p> Another 1948 is in the making for the Palestinians. With the
- end of the Persian Gulf war, only 70,000 of the 400,000
- Palestinians who lived in Kuwait before the Iraqi invasion in
- August 1990 remain, facing an uncertain future. The 250,000 who
- fled to Jordan during the Gulf crisis now live in a state of
- homelessness, joblessness, and despair. Palestinian financial
- losses since the outbreak of the Gulf crisis are estimated at
- $10 billion; this figure excludes the loss of Palestinian assets
- in Kuwait and the costs the war imposed on the Palestinian
- economy in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip.
- </p>
- <p> Key Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have
- basically reversed the 1974 Rabat summit resolution, which
- recognized the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) as the
- sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. The
- Palestine question, once at the top of the Arab agenda--at
- least rhetorically--has been deferred, though not abandoned.
- Why?
- </p>
- <p> The answer lies in the way PLO chairman Yasir Arafat and
- senior PLO officials guided the ship of Palestinian politics
- during the Gulf crisis. Throughout the crisis several Arafats
- were in evidence. There was the democratic Arafat, who had to
- take the wishes of his constituency into consideration; the
- single-minded Arafat, who dismissed the better judgement of his
- most senior colleagues; and the overconfident Arafat, who
- mistakenly believed that with his limited resources he could act
- as a mediator between Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and
- Saddam's Arab enemies. Above all, there was the Arafat who was
- perceived as the "legitimizer" of Saddam's invasion and
- occupation of Kuwait.
- </p>
- <p> Which aspect of Arafat's behavior best conformed to reality?
- Certainly, there was overwhelming support for Saddam among the
- Palestinians living in Jordan and the occupied territories, not
- because he invaded Kuwait, but because he stood up to the United
- States, Israel's protector and supporter. As far as the
- Palestinians were concerned, the fact that United States
- President George Bush mobilized the world to reverse Iraq's
- seizure of Kuwait but had done nothing to force Israel to comply
- with United Nations (UN) resolutions concerning the occupied
- territories was the epitome of selective morality. Moreover,
- Saddam misled the Palestinians into believing that Iraq had a
- deterrent against nuclear Israel, thus preparing the ground to
- end Israel's occupation. As Palestinian journalist Hanna Siniora
- explained the Palestinians' positive reaction to Saddam, "When
- a drowning man sees land disappear slowly in front of him, and
- suddenly a man throws him a rope, he will not ask who that man
- is."
- </p>
- <p> The Palestinians were drowning before the Gulf crisis. The
- end of the cold war signaled the further strengthening of
- Israeli hegemony. The prospect of a "Greater" Israel--that
- is, one that included the territory now under Israeli control
- in the West Bank--was becoming more of a reality, thanks
- primarily to the influx of over 200,000 Soviet Jews. Moreover,
- "transfer" policy, which many Israeli right-wingers interpret
- as the expulsion of the Palestinians from the territories, was
- a topic of public discussion; peace-for-peace rather than the
- land-for-peace formula became the official policy of the
- Israeli government; settlement activity in the occupied
- territories was escalating in leaps and bounds; and dialogue
- between the United States and the PLO was frozen. All this took
- place against a backdrop of Arab acquiescence and inaction.
- </p>
- <p> This explains, but does not necessarily justify, the
- pro-Saddam reaction of the Palestinians in the occupied
- territories and in Jordan. Arafat, who was by then more mindful
- of the preferences of his West Bank and Gaza constituency then
- he had been five or ten years earlier, rode the popular tide in
- the territories and took a pro-Iraq stance.
- </p>
- <p>Disagreement with Arafat
- </p>
- <p> Another aspect of Arafat's behavior was that he
- uncharacteristically dismissed not only the advice of some of
- his closest aides, but also the desires of the Palestinians in
- Kuwait and the rest of the Gulf. These included Salah Khalaf,
- the number two man in the PLO (who was assassinated at the
- start of the Gulf war), and many Palestinian intellectuals who
- wanted the PLO to distance itself from Saddam. When it did not,
- they strongly opposed Arafat's handling of the crisis. Many
- Palestinians living in Kuwait and the Gulf, especially those
- with business interests or government positions, were also
- critical of Arafat. Activists from the mainstream Fatah faction
- of the PLO in Kuwait did not simply condemn the Iraqi invasion;
- some of them even joined the Kuwaiti underground.
- </p>
- <p> Those who disagreed with Arafat argued that the Iraqi
- invasion of Kuwait was a violation of the principles from which
- the Palestinian cause drew its legitimacy and moral strength.
- They also noted that the Palestinians, vulnerable as they were,
- should avoid taking sides in inter-Arab conflicts and that
- Kuwait had always supported the Palestinians and had opened its
- borders to skilled and unskilled Palestinian labor. Finally,
- even the appearance of a mild tilt toward Iraq would dry up
- Gulf financial support for the Palestinians, thus eroding the
- Palestinian economic base.
- </p>
- <p> Why did Arafat choose to ignore these points? Some say the
- reason was Saddam's seduction of Arafat at least two years
- before the crisis with facilities, logistics, and the
- unrealistic promise of deterring Israel. Others mention the
- emergence of a more militant and uncompromising Israel.
- </p>
- <p> But there is an additional reason. The PLO, which emerged and
- operates in exile, has traditionally articulated the political
- desires of the Palestinians in the diaspora. With the onset of
- the intifada (uprising) in the occupied territories in December
- 1987, the balance started to shift to the Palestinians in the
- West Bank and Gaza. While the Palestinians have always viewed
- themselves as an indivisible political community, the intifada
- forced the PLO leadership in Tunis to pay closer attention to
- the views of the Palestinians living under Israeli occupation.
- The overriding concern of these Palestinians is to end the
- occupation, even if it entails recognition of Israel.
- </p>
- <p> With his view fixed on the Palestinians in the occupied
- territories and in Jordan, Arafat thus distanced himself from
- the largely anti-Saddam position of the Palestinians living in
- the Gulf states. He instead adopted an ambivalent attitude:
- support for Iraq as the challenger of foreign forces, as well as
- opposition to Iraq as the invader of Kuwait. In so doing, he
- assumed that his behavior would ensure continued Palestinian
- support in Jordan and the occupied territories without
- alienating the Arab Gulf countries. The rapid unfolding of
- events proved the second half of his assumption deadly wrong.
- Arafat ended up a leader with a diminished constituency, since
- his sizable base in Kuwait literally vanished. At the same
- time, he lost his Arab allies in the Gulf.
- </p>
- <p> Another example of Arafat's miscalculations was his attempt
- to mediate between Iraq and the Arab governments aligned
- against it. His behavior in this regard may have stemmed both
- from a desire to localize the Gulf crisis and solve it within
- the Arab "family," and his wish to gain political capital from
- his efforts if he was successful. Arafat, however, failed to
- see that mediation required that all the parties involved share
- a spirit of genuine cooperation.
- </p>
- <p> Saddam, at least as of August 3, 1990, when a majority of the
- Arab League members adopted a resolution condemning Iraq's
- invasion the day before and calling for an unconditional
- withdrawal, adamantly refused to pull his troops out of Kuwait.
- According to an August 1991 Jordanian White Paper, Saddam agreed
- to withdraw if the Arab League did not condemn Iraq or invite
- foreign powers to force a withdrawal. (White Paper on Jordan and
- the Gulf Crisis, August 1990-March 1991--Amman: The Government
- of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, 1991, pp. 4-5.) Likewise,
- the Gulf countries and Saudi Arabia were stubbornly determined
- to keep the door of negotiation with Saddam closed, either of
- their own volition or as a result of United States pressure.
- What they sought was Iraq's unconditional capitulation.
- </p>
- <p> Arafat should have known better. Never in the modern history
- of inter-Arab relations had the line been drawn so clearly
- between two opposing camps--in this case the anti-Saddam camp
- and the camp of those who chose to stay outside it. Sitting on
- the fence was not allowed, nor was neutrality.
- </p>
- <p>Did Saddam Need Arafat?
- </p>
- <p> What about the charge that Arafat's behavior strengthened
- Saddam's resolve and legitimized his claims? The rulers of the
- Gulf countries certainly believed this. (Senior diplomats from
- the Gulf have often expressed their belief in this charge in
- discussions with the author.) However, in many political affairs
- reality is what we believe in and not what is there; it is hard
- to believe that Saddam needed an Arafat to harden his position
- or to give his actions a cloak of legitimacy.
- </p>
- <p> From the beginning, Saddam was driven by his own vision. He
- was in full control of the Iraqi state, which is what mattered
- most in his search for legitimacy. Saddam was unyielding and
- determined to turn his back on anyone who suggested withdrawal
- from Kuwait. According to a senior Arab official, Saddam told
- Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh that he would not be welcome
- in Baghdad if he recommended an Iraqi withdrawal because that
- would run counter to Iraq's nationalist stand. When Arafat
- reportedly implored Saddam to withdraw from Kuwait, pointing to
- the destruction that awaited Iraq if it did not, Saddam replied
- that if the Palestinians, with their limited military resources,
- were able to hold out for 88 days against the Israeli forces
- during Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982, then Iraq, with its
- greater military resources, should be able to stand fast for a
- longer time. These exchanges illustrate Saddam's frame of mind.
- </p>
- <p> Throughout the crisis, Arafat's worst mistake was to follow
- rather than lead Palestine public opinion. The PLO leader should
- have taken a stand against Palestinian popular opinion and
- supported the Kuwaiti position.
- </p>
- <p>The Reactive Trend
- </p>
- <p> The Gulf war and its aftermath catalyzed a heated debate
- among Palestinians that resulted in demands for political and
- organizational changes in the PLO. At the same time, the PLO's
- grip on Palestinian politics began to loosen. Two trends in
- Palestinian political thought developed: a reactive and a
- proactive policy.
- </p>
- <p> Those advocating a reactive policy believed that because of
- the PLO's weak position after the Gulf war, it should refrain
- from any bold initiatives. Instead, the group should adopt a
- wait-and-see attitude, and simply react to initiatives from the
- United States or others. The first important initiative they
- faced was a United States proposal for a Middle East peace
- conference under joint Soviet-American sponsorship. To
- strengthen the PLO's negotiating position at such a conference,
- advocates of a reactive approach argued that the PLO should
- restore its prewar Arab alliances and reinvigorate its 1988
- peace strategy, which was based on recognition of Israel,
- acceptance of United Nations Security Council Resolution 242,
- and creation of a Palestinian state confederated with Jordan
- and confined to the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and
- Gaza (UN Security Council Resolution 242, adopted in November,
- 1967, calls for Israel to withdraw from the territories it
- occupied during the June 1967 Six Day War (East Jerusalem, and
- the West Bank, Golan Heights, Sinai Peninsula, and Gaza Strip),
- and for Arab states to recognize Israel's "right to live in
- peace within secure and recognized boundaries"--the so-called
- land for peace formula.) Among the policy's chief advocates were
- Arafat, PLO Executive Committee members Mahmoud Abbas (Abu
- Mazin), Yasir Abd Rabbuh, Suleiman al-Najjab, and Faruq
- al-Qaddumi.
- </p>
- <p> The PLO's efforts to seek reconciliation and a return to the
- Arab mainstream were evident in the organization's stepped-up
- effort to rebuild its bridges with Egypt and Syria. PLO efforts
- to improve relations with Egypt took the form of meetings
- between senior Egyptian and PLO officials on the proposed
- Middle East peace conference. Thanks to the mediation efforts
- of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi, a summit meeting took place
- between Arafat and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in
- Benghazi, Libya, in August 1991. The meeting returned the
- Egyptian-Palestinian relationship to where it had been before
- the Gulf crisis, and restored the PLO's Arab credentials, which
- had been tarnished during the Gulf crisis. The visit also
- helped end Egypt's isolation and paved the way for its
- reintegration into the Arab and Islamic worlds after being
- condemned for signing a separate peace agreement with Israel in
- 1979.
- </p>
- <p> The PLO was motivated to improve relations with the regime of
- Syrian President Hafez al-Assad after eight years of bitter
- feuding by three objectives: to use Damascus as a channel to the
- Gulf states; to thwart attempts by the United States and the
- Gulf governments to exclude the PLO from the Middle East peace
- process; and to coordinate with Syria a common stand before the
- Middle East peace conference.
- </p>
- <p> The Syrian government, not the PLO, took the initiative in
- improving relations. The reason? Syria has a Camp David complex.
- It wanted to make sure that no Arab state would reach a separate
- peace with Israel, or reach an agreement with it regarding
- functional issues, before Israel committed itself to withdraw
- from Arab land. Whatever working relationship emerges between
- Syria and the PLO on the tactical level will be temporary, since
- their long-term goals are different. The PLO wants a freeze on
- Jewish settlements, even if it entails a separate arrangement
- with Israel. Syria sees no incentive to move in that direction,
- since the Israeli government is adamantly opposed to territorial
- compromise on the Golan Heights.
- </p>
- <p> An interest in reconciliation was also evident in the PLO's
- attitude toward the peace conference and in its reaction to the
- conditions laid down by the United States and Israel for
- participation in the conference. Since April 1991, the PLO had
- allowed a Palestinian delegation from the occupied territories
- to meet with United States Secretary of State James Baker 3rd
- several times, despite Baker's opposition to a Palestinian state
- or any role for the PLO. (The most prominent members of the
- Palestinian delegation were Hanan Ashrawi, Zakaria al-Agha,
- Faisal al-Husseini, and Sari Nusseibeh.) That same month, the
- PLO Central Council recommended the "opening of new horizons"
- for restoring the dialogue with the United States. (The United
- States has made it clear that it is not yet ready to reopen its
- official dialogue with the PLO, which was broken off in 1990.)
- </p>
- <p> In June, Arafat accepted American proposals regarding the
- participation of Palestinians from the occupied territories in a
- joint Jordanian-Palestinian delegation to the peace conference,
- thus dropping his insistence on independent Palestinian
- representation; and in September the Palestine National Council
- (PNC), the Palestinian parliament-in-exile, authorized
- Palestinian involvement in the peace conference. The
- PNC stopped short of sanctioning Palestinian participation on
- the basis of Israel's conditions, which were: any Palestinian
- delegation must be formed by non-PLO Palestinians from the
- occupied territories; members of the delegation would not have
- any direct connection with East Jerusalem; and members should
- not have formal links with the PLO.
- </p>
- <p>The Proactive Trend
- </p>
- <p> Two groups, one secular and the other Islamist, advocate a
- proactive policy for the PLO; that is, the organization should
- initiate new ideas and policies, and not simply react to outside
- initiatives. Representatives of the secular perspectives include
- Palestinian intellectuals, dissenting Fatah insiders, and
- leftist groups. The Islamist perspective is represented by the
- Islamic Resistance Movement (often referred to by its Arabic
- acronym, Hamas), and Islamic Jihad.
- </p>
- <p> Certain Palestinian intellectuals criticized the PLO's
- position on the Gulf crisis on both moral and political grounds.
- They said the PLO's strategy during the crisis greatly damaged
- the organization's political credibility, and called on it to
- come out "publicly, repeatedly, and forcefully against the
- invasion of Kuwait and in favor of Iraqi withdrawal..." (Walid
- Khalidi, The Gulf Crisis: Origins and Consequence--Washington
- DC: Institute for Palestine Studies, 1991, pp. 22-23.) Other
- intellectuals, while not supportive of the PLO's policy during
- the crisis, proposed alternative approaches for the Palestinian
- movement.
- </p>
- <p> One of these approaches was based on the belief that a change
- in Palestinian politics was needed. The best way to accomplish
- this was to focus on how the United States could help promote
- lasting peace in the region. Those holding this view believed
- the Palestinians should obtain clarifications from the United
- States regarding its interpretation of Security Council
- Resolution 242 and guarantees that a comprehensive
- Israeli-Palestinian and Arab-Israeli settlement. They also said
- the United States should provide written assurances that during
- the transitional phase Israeli settlement activity in the West
- Bank would cease, and that sovereignty over land, water, the
- economy, and other matters would be in Palestinian hands.
- Leading Palestinian representatives, including Faisal
- al-Husseini and Hanan Ashrawi, repeatedly and consistently
- demanded such guarantees during their discussions with
- Secretary of State Baker.
- </p>
- <p> Palestinian intellectuals wanted the PLO to play a role in
- selecting the Palestinian delegation to the conference. However,
- when it became clear that the United States and Israel adamantly
- rejected such a role, many intellectuals concluded that
- substance was more important than procedure, even if it meant
- accepting a joint Jordanian-Palestinian delegation without PLO
- participation. Their position on this issue was in accordance
- with that of senior Fatah leaders, like Mohmoud Abbas, who
- argued that the PLO should allow the Palestinians living in
- occupied territories to negotiate a settlement with Israel.
- </p>
- <p> Palestinian political activists, both inside and outside the
- occupied territories, also joined the debate over alternatives.
- While all Palestinians have recognized the need for political
- reform, this time the call was voiced both inside and outside
- the PLO. Two proposals that have been developed stand out:
- internal reform and marhaliyyah, or the concept of stages in
- achieving a Palestinian state.
- </p>
- <p> The ideas of Radi al-Jarai and Khalid al-Hasan on internal
- reform deserve special mention. Jarai is a senior Fatah
- activist in the West Bank who writes for the pro-Fatah
- Jerusalem daily Al-Fajr. In his articles, Jarai has proposed
- that PLO institutions should be composed of both Palestinians
- in the occupied territories and those living outside them. To
- achieve this, Jarai has suggested the dissolution of the PNC,
- internationally supervised elections of new PNC delegates, and a
- provisional government or government-in-exile composed of an
- equal number of Palestinians from inside and outside the
- occupied territories. The intifada leaders have expressed
- similar ideas.
- </p>
- <p> Khalid al-Hasan, founder of Fatah and the head of the PNC's
- Foreign Affairs Committee, has promoted ideas like Jarai's that
- have the support of an important segment of Palestinian opinion.
- Besides calling for democratization and an end to what he called
- the "tyrannical line of Arafat," Hasan strongly recommended that
- the Palestinians form a joint Jordanian-Palestinian delegation
- to the peace conference and set up a provisional government.
- </p>
- <p> An independent Palestinian delegation, Hasan argued, would be
- incapable of achieving results in bilateral negotiations, even
- if it was accepted by Israel, for four reasons. First, the
- diplomatic balance would be overwhelmingly against it; second,
- Security Council Resolution 242 does not apply to the PLO, but
- to the occupied territory and by implication to Jordan; third,
- if Jordan attended the conference alone--and it was willing to
- do that if it had to--it would discuss only Jordan, not
- Palestine; fourth, for an independent delegation the maximum
- bargaining position would be self-rule, while for a joint
- delegation it would be the exchange of land for peace.
- </p>
- <p> In making these proposals, Hasan may have been motivated by a
- desire to challenge Arafat while Arafat was in a position of
- weakness. But regardless of his motive, his ideas on a joint
- Jordanian-Palestinian delegation found support in the PLO and in
- the occupied territories.
- </p>
- <p> The concept of marhaliyyah has also had a significant impact
- of Palestinian thinking. Since 1974 the Palestinians have
- demanded the establishment of a Palestinian state confederated
- with Jordan. In March 1991, the situation started to change. For
- the first time, some Palestinians in the occupied territories,
- notably Jarai, publicly advocated the idea of an interim phase
- before statehood. They dropped the word "autonomy" because it
- was associated with the restrictive interpretation of Israel's
- Likud government, which insisted that autonomy would apply to
- people but not to territory. Instead, Jarai and a few others
- used the term "self-government," or "self-governing
- arrangements," a phrase reportedly introduced by Baker and used
- in his letters of assurances to the Palestinians. Although the
- concept of marhaliyyah had stirred a heated debate among the
- Palestinians, a growing number of people, including senior PLO
- officials, concluded that it was in the interest of the
- Palestinians to accept an interim settlement.
- </p>
- <p> The diminished regional stature of the PLO and the galloping
- pace of Israeli settlement activities in the West Bank have made
- marhaliyyah a painful but acceptable option for many
- Palestinians, including many PLO leaders. Indeed, in April 1991,
- the PLO authorized the Palestinian delegation negotiating with
- Baker about participation in the peace conference to accept the
- idea of an interim phase without American or Israeli guarantees
- that the proposed phase would be followed by an independent
- Palestinian state.
- </p>
- <p>The Islamist Perspective
- </p>
- <p> Hamas and Islamic Jihad are the two main advocates of an
- Islamist alternative for the Palestinian struggle. Hamas was
- established in late 1987 as the political and military arm of
- the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist group that has traditionally
- emphasized the completion of social reform and religious and
- moral education before waging armed struggle against the Israeli
- occupation. The intifada, however, has caused the Muslim
- Brotherhood to switch its focus and adopt an activist strategy
- of popular struggle. This process has been accelerated by its
- young and increasingly militant constituency.
- </p>
- <p> Islamic Jihad emerged in the early 1980's. It too, has young
- and militant members, who are motivated by religious and
- nationalist beliefs and who demand immediate armed struggle
- against the Israeli occupation. Both Hamas and Islamic Jihad are
- based in the occupied territories, but they have followers
- outside the territories. Hamas is the more popular group,
- claiming to represent one-third of the Palestinians living in
- the West Bank and Gaza.
- </p>
- <p> Although Hamas and Islamic Jihad maintain independent
- institutions and political and social programs, they neither
- challenge the PLO's legitimacy nor claim to be alternatives to
- the PLO. However, they have increased their constituencies at
- the expense of secular PLO groups, including Fatah, the Popular
- Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), and the
- Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP).
- Equally significant, their advocacy of armed struggle and
- militant Islamism rivals the PLO's moderate program, which calls
- for compromise and a peaceful settlement with Israel.
- </p>
- <p> The key ideas propounded by Hamas shed light on the ethos and
- direction of the Islamist perspective. One of these is the
- organization's call for an escalation of the intifada. This
- means promoting armed struggle and resorting to more activist
- measures against the Israeli occupation, such as strikes and
- boycotts of Israeli products. Escalation underscores the mood of
- the Hamas constituency. Born and raised in the oppressive
- climate of the Israeli occupation and frustrated with a
- stagnant political process, Hamas sympathizers have concluded
- that militant activism is the only viable alternative. For
- these religious nationalists, the intifada is the Palestinian's
- only option. The PLO's policy of dialogue and non-violent
- resistance is considered futile.
- </p>
- <p> Hamas also calls for the total liberation of Palestine. Its
- demand is expressed in Islamic concepts depicting the
- Palestinian struggle as the "battle of the Islamic watan
- [homeland] with all its potential, resources, and civilization,
- against the Jews and their greed and machinations." To Hamas,
- participating in the peace process is nothing but a "sellout of
- Palestine and holy Jerusalem." In a world where the United
- States is the uncontested hegemon, according to Hamas, peace
- conferences are instruments designed to promote Israel's
- expansionist program and secure the capitulation of the Arab
- and Islamic worlds.
- </p>
- <p> Hamas calls for the formation of a new PNC through free
- UN-sponsored elections in the occupied territories. If elections
- cannot be held, Hamas argues, then as much as 40 percent of the
- 490 members of the PNC should be Hamas followers. While these
- demands may represent an interest in representative
- institutions, the more immediate and compelling objectives are
- more complex than that.
- </p>
- <p> The call for elections signals the start of a more
- assertive challenge to the PLO for control of the Palestinian
- resistance movement. The Hamas leadership may have decided that
- the cards were now stacked against the Arafat leadership because
- of its pro-Saddam position. On this score, Hamas policy during
- the Gulf crisis proved more pragmatic and forward-looking than
- that of the PLO. True, Hamas equated the fight against foreign
- powers in the Gulf (which it called Crusaders) with the
- Palestinian fight against Zionism, But the thrust of its policy
- was balanced. Anxious not to alienate the pro-Saddam
- Palestinians, Hamas demanded the withdrawal of foreign troops
- from the Gulf and Iraqi troops from Kuwait; it also affirmed the
- right of the Kuwaiti people to self-determination and the
- selection of the government.
- </p>
- <p> The latter demand was made in part because of factors such as
- financial aid from Gulf countries, skepticism about Saddam
- Hussein's ability to liberate Palestine, and above all Hamas's
- belief that the future would be on its side if it distances
- itself from Iraq. Thus, with more of an eye on the growing
- influence of the Gulf states than an ear for pro-Saddam
- demonstrations on the Palestinian street, Hamas maintained its
- balanced position and in the process paid its dues to its Gulf
- benefactors. Several Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia,
- quietly welcomed Hamas's position because they believed it would
- allow them to manipulate intra-Palestinian differences.
- </p>
- <p>Who Has Prevailed?
- </p>
- <p> These were the basic lines of thought that emerged among the
- Palestinians after the Gulf war. Which one has prevailed? So
- far, the views of the proactive forces of pragmatic nationalism
- have carried the day. Their vision was reflected in the
- political program of the September 1991 twentieth PNC, as well
- as the decision to accept the American-supported Israeli
- conditions for participation in the peace process. The PNC
- program was based on the following guidelines, all echoing the
- proposals of the proactive moderates. The guidelines show that
- the PLO has changed its position on key strategic issues.
- </p>
- <p>-- There should be an international peace conference. This
- position has changed. The new PNC program clearly states that
- with the current balance of power and new regional and
- international developments, the Palestinians have no realistic
- choice but to join in the United States-Soviet sponsored
- regional conference with Israel and the Arab states.
- </p>
- <p>-- The PLO should be an equal partner. This position has also
- changed. The program stipulates that the PLO has "the right to
- form the Palestinian delegation from within and outside the
- homeland, including Jerusalem," thus signaling that the PLO has
- dropped its insistence on the right to participate directly and
- visibly in the peace conference.
- </p>
- <p>-- Any solution should allow for the establishment of an
- independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza
- confederated with Jordan. This demand is not mentioned even
- once in the new political program. At most, the program
- expresses the Palestinian desire to build future relations with
- Jordan "on the basis of a confederation between the two states
- of Palestine and Jordan."
- </p>
- <p>-- Autonomy is not a viable option. The PLO has also altered
- its position on this issue. The new PNC program explicitly
- endorses "provisional arrangements" that should include "the
- right of our people to sovereignty over land, water, natural
- resources, and all political and economic affairs." This means
- the PLO has accepted the spirit of the Camp David formula of
- autonomy, without necessarily endorsing the official Israeli
- interpretation of it as an interim phase, pending an agreement
- on the final status of the occupied Palestinian land.
- </p>
- <p> Other concessions the PLO made before the Gulf crisis have
- been upheld. These included the abandonment of armed struggle,
- the espousal of diplomacy, and the acceptance of UN Resolution
- 242. These concessions were unacceptable to certain Palestinian
- groups, including the leftist PFLP and DFLP, the Islamists, and
- the Damascus-based Palestine National Salvation Front (PNSF).
- For the last two groups, the concessions not only represented
- the abandonment of Palestinian national rights in all of
- Palestine, "from the river to the sea," but also an ignominious
- capitulation to Israeli hegemony. The PFLP and DFLP also wanted
- direct PLO participation in the peace conference. They resented
- the formulation of a Palestinian delegation on the basis of
- Israeli conditions.
- </p>
- <p>Selecting Conference Delegates
- </p>
- <p> In his behind-the-scenes involvement in the selection of the
- delegation to the peace conference, Arafat used three criteria:
- family background, political affiliation, and geographic
- representation. An examination of the background of the members
- of the fourteen-member delegation indicates that they either
- were from high-status families or were political activists.
- Indeed, seven of the members either belonged to Fatah or were
- pro-Fatah, three were Communists, three were independents, and
- one was identified with the ABD Rabbah faction of the DFLP;
- none was from the PFLP or the Islamist delegates, who chose not
- to participate. Three of the six members who compose the
- advisory committee are from notable Jerusalem families with
- Fatah sympathies. In an attempt to represent the major
- Palestinian cities of the occupied territories, four of the
- delegates selected were from Gaza, three were from Nablus, three
- from Ramallah, two from Hebron, one from Bethlehem, and one
- from Jericho.
- </p>
- <p> When the PLO Central Council met in mid-October 1991, Arafat
- had to face the daunting task of overcoming the stiff opposition
- not only of the non-Fatah elements but also of some mainstream
- Fatah veterans. A "palace coup" almost took place as the
- dissenting Fatah veterans argued that the PLO should reassert
- its rights against Tel Aviv and Washington, otherwise
- Palestinian independence and national rights would be
- sacrificed at the conference.
- </p>
- <p> Many members of the opposition changed their views after
- reading an article by Bashir Barghuti, a leading Communist from
- the West Bank, that was published in the Jerusalem Arabic weekly
- Al-Taliah. Arafat read the article and realized that its simple
- but persuasive message had the potential to help the moderates
- overcome the opposition.
- </p>
- <p> In the article, Barghuti raised three points. First, the
- Palestinian delegation, regardless of its composition, would
- attend the peace conference not to surrender but to fight for
- Palestinian rights; the conference would be an "arena of
- struggle." Second, those who had reservations should devise a
- viable alternative in the form of a realistic and precise
- strategic concept, with a clear definition of their aims and
- methods to achieve those aims. Third, Barghuti proposed the
- formation of a steering committee that would include
- Palestinians from inside and outside the occupied territories;
- the committee would be responsible for coordinating and giving
- direction to the Palestinian negotiators at the conference.
- </p>
- <p> Arafat distributed copies of the article to the 78
- participants at the Central Council meeting. He eventually
- persuaded the majority of them to accept the composition of the
- delegation.
- </p>
- <p> There is some concern that radicals may try to disrupt
- Palestinian participation in the peace process. The most serious
- threat comes from militant Islamists, who have publicly
- threatened members of the delegation. The best guarantee against
- the radicals is a genuine desire among all participants to bring
- an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict.
- </p>
- <p>The New Palestinian Agenda
- </p>
- <p> The emerging system of Palestinian politics is not likely to
- be based on the old formula of total PLO dominance or to be
- exclusively derived from the expanding role of Palestinian
- activists in the occupied territories. Instead, it will rest on
- interaction between Palestinians in the occupied territories and
- those living in exile. This is about to become a reality. The
- new Palestinian agenda articulated at the twentieth PNC reflects
- the political preference of the proactive elements inside the
- occupied territories. The official Palestinian delegation to the
- Middle East peace conference was selected from the West Bank and
- Gaza Strip. It is supported by an advisory group composed of
- Palestinians from East Jerusalem and the diaspora. Together with
- the advisory group, the PLO will continue to unofficially
- co-manage the Palestinian delegation.
- </p>
- <p> For the Palestinians, attending the peace conference
- represents an opportunity and a challenge. It is an opportunity,
- since success at the conference could lead to their deliverance
- from the brutal realities of Israel's occupation. Indeed, the
- Palestinians have the strongest incentive to bring the
- conference to a successful conclusion because their very
- survival as a political community is at stake. The conference is
- also a challenge because the Palestinians believe they have made
- painful concessions of procedure; they hope for a better deal
- if and when agreements on interim self-government arrangements
- and the final status of the territories are reached. Their
- driving motivation is a compromise based on balance, fairness,
- and security for all. Faisal al-Husseini summed it up when he
- said, "We are fighting to free our people, not to enslave any
- other people. We are fighting to build our state, not to destroy
- any other state."
- </p>
- <p>[Muhammad Muslih--among his publications are The Origins of
- Palestinian Nationalism (New York: Columbia University Press,
- 1988) and From the Palestine War to the Gulf War: Palestinian
- Political Thought since 1948 (Boulder, Col.: Westview Press,
- forthcoming). He is currently writing a book on Syria's
- foreign policy.]
- </p>
-
- </body>
- </article>
- </text>
-